Well, Thanksgiving is coming up – and seasonally, historically, the market tends to rally into the holidays.
There was an exception this past July 4 – the market sold off into the holidays.
While that is a possibility here, based on market action, if the market was going to puke, it would have already done so. The fact that it’s showing some level of buoyancy leans the odds towards a rally into the holidays instead.
I believe Nov 30 is the Trump meeting with the Chinese president – so expecting optimism going into the meeting.
The previous high was 2820 ES. We are currently at 2742ES. If the pattern plays out, we could potentially exceed 2820 ES just slightly. If it does – perhaps it could be optimism leading up to Trump’s summit meeting with China end of November in Argentina.
I expect the Nasdaq to underperform the S&P – with FB, AMZN, NVDA, AAPL momentum putting a lid on the upside momentum. Previous high was around 7230 NQ. We are currently at 6897 NQ.
We found resistance right at 2820 ES — near the same area as the prior high. Ideal scenario is if the next rally just exceeds it and then fails.
So far the down market has been somewhat following the downward trend is outlined below. We hit a low around 2670 — only for a split second before rebounding ferociously back up within a few hours.
The Nasdaq reached into 7220 NQ previously. WIth us at 6897, there could be some upside between here and a retest of that resistance region.
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