On Friday, we took another $750 trade (off of ~$2,000 initial investment for close to 35%-40% gains) in 2 days.
We alerted SPY call buys at 2496/97 to members on what initially appeared to be a WTF am I doing move – but it turns out the market moved up since then without crossing the our entry region at 2497 ES yet.
On Friday, we locked in $750 in profits when the market rallied to 2513.5 ES. Of course, after hours – it popped even higher north of 2517.
Here’s my prediction for next week: a potential local top around Wednesday – ideally following the pink path.
However, given how much the market has moved up – I have to move my bear targets higher. Initially was looking in the 2360 ES to 2385 ES region – but now looks like 2420 ES will have to be good enough – if we even get there.
This market has shrugged off all kinds of bad news like nothing. Also, historically, the markets are very strong during Q4 of the year – which begins this week as we enter into October.
But if history is of any real guidance – then the market really should have fallen in September – which is what it historically does. And the exact opposite happened instead.
So will the exact opposite happen again in October or will it stick to history and grind up into the end of the year?
I would like to see some kind of correction this month – so we will have to be patient.
The Dow does appear to have topped just yet. However, there appears to be a lot of empty white space between 22,000 and 22,200. At some point the market should drop into 22,050 region and spend some time there.
This past week we bought QQQ puts that turned out well with $1,000 – and we did so shortly after the completion of what we saw as 5 waves in the pink b-wave towards 6010 NQ. We exited after a few days – at 5940 NQ from 5990 NQ entry – around 50 points.
Had we held on, we could have caught a meaningful move to the downside that has since reversed right back to near our initial entry of the QQQ puts – now standing at 5980 NQ.
I believe there should be some consolidation and one more thrust towards 6010 NQ that should ideally coincide with a local top in the S&P — perhaps Wednesday?
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