The market appears to be setting up in an ideal pattern on a daily chart basis that matches our theoretical diagram (see below).
Basically after a big A wave down and a big wave 1 down – this past week has been a wave 2 bounce.
But the wave 2 bounce has a characteristic “twin peaks” — which we can see as being at the 2452 ES region – which is what my target was as mentioned in last week’s video.
In fact, in that video at the 4:30 mark, I mention that we should get a bounce and my targets are 2446 ES and possibly 2452 ES. The high was 2454 ES, which we hit on Aug 22 and again today 3 days later Aug 25 – we reached up to 2453 ES on the Yellen speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
So so far – the market is behaving exactly according to the C-wave pattern in the below diagram.
There’s no guarantee that the market will follow through according to the pattern, but the setup is potentially there.
Perhaps over the weekend there will be some geopolitical headlines to “trigger” this move?
This pattern is not clear at all when we zoom in — so I have less confidence when zoomed in, but when zoomed out on daily, it looks great.
During the day, after attempting 2453 ES and failing — the market went towards 2440 ES – but then it attempted 2450 ES again — at this point, I was not sure if the pattern was on track, but lo and behold at the last half hour – the market finally reversed and closed near 2442 ES.
As such, there’s a chance for the pink count to target below 2430 ES. However, we could still be in a more complex b-wave — so if we hold support in the 2430s and turn back up strongly to new highs – that would be something to watch out for.
But my preference is for the diagram to play out.
The Russell has held up unusually well — but I see resistance at the 1380 region – which is where we pulled back from in that last hour.
The Russell was previously destroyed — this past week was it outperformed on a relative basis to the other indices.
The Nasdaq has reached into the 5870 region 3 times so far — and pulled back each time.
Silver has crossed over the pink line and also come back to test that down trend — and now it has consolidated near that 17 – it should eventually start moving up.
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