Today, we alerted to members an exit on the remaining half of our SPY July 19’17 242 calls – realizing just under $1,200 on this remaining half. The first half we realized about $550, so combined together is about $1,700.
We were able to issue a buy alert at almost the best perfect spot when ES dipped momentarily into 2410 and we entered @2417 ES. From there, it did not dip anyore – instead it rallied more than 40 points towards 2458 ES.
This was only possible because the rally we’ve been expecting finally is in progress. Target is near 2485 – possibly 2500.
We could reach towards 2460 Sunday night into Monday morning – but expecting some pullback Monday morning – to the 2447 ES region – potentially to 2438 – 2441 even.
The higher we get, the more cautious we should be – as I I think sometime in August – I don’t know whether beginning, middle, or end, the market will stall and we may have some significant selling.
If we take a look at recent history in 2015 —here’s what happened:
In Aug 2015 – we got a big wave A drop – almost suddenly — that was around Aug 20-22 time period — followed by a rally for the rest of the year – and then selling in January 2016. It wasn’t until President’s weekend in February that the rally resumed.
I don’t expect this 4th wave to last 6 months like it did back then. It should be closer to 2-3 months. But signs are pointing to being cautious in Aug – October.
The previous S&P chart showed a wave iii in the 2446 region – which is what we got – we then pulled back to 2439 temporarily before forming the squiggles of potentially wave v.
The Russell seems to be losing the momentum it had early – so as I was expecting in my last post – the wave 3 might be on the short side – and there may not be a wave 5. Russell is a wait and see situation – but most likely should be exiting in this 1430+ region.
Nasdaq should get over 5850 over the weekend, but like the S&P, I’m expecting a pullback Monday morning – ideally below 5800 NQ.
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