After the markets got killed on Thursday, on Friday after the 8:30 report, the market began a small bounce.
The selloff with consolidation in the 2410 region can be characteristic of a B-wave low. If so, then today’s rally was either all or part of wave 1 up – leaning towards partial.
I was really expecting the 5th wave to begin after the 4th wave seemingly ended on June 29 — but perhaps due to the holidays, there was not enough upward pressure – and we failed at the 2430 region – came right back down to the 2405 region –ad actually spend more time in this 2405-2410 region than we did on June 19 — which is typical of a b-wave bottom.
Today, we got what may have been a wave 1 up -I would expect sunday to resume – and then Monday we get a gap up around 2430 ES and crap senario back down to 2418-2419 ideally by end of the day.
Previously, this is what the S&P chart looked like.
We were looking for a potential rally towards 2430 – and if that failed, then we would come down towards 2415.
Well, we came up to 2430 multiple times – I did not expect it to happen multiple times. First it fell towards 2419 – short of our 2415-2418 expectation — then it rallied back to 2432 – but then failed again – and this time falling well below 2415 — all the way down to 2405.
This is not a great count as it relies on the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern to be an overlapping expanding diagonal. Also, the c-wave can come in anywhere in the 1210 to 1180-ish range and still fit. At the same time, there’s a tail-end completed 5 wave pattern potentially from 1255 to 1205. In general, too unclear at the moment.
“Strong” support at 16 gave way on pretty much the first trip – not even a bounce. With this decisive break – I think it’s best to avoid silver in the near term. The gold pattern is clearer – but still not the best.
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