Intraday volatility has been ridiculous, especially with news of the FBI re-opening investigations into Hilary Clinton’s emails. The pattern in S&P is extremely unclear. Only in the Russell is there a potentially clear bottoming pattern – but all other indices do not have clear bottoming action.
My best guess is that Russell has eithered bottomed or is very close to it — ranging from Oct 28 – 31 as the time zone. However, all the other indices are not clear so it’s hard to say with clarity or confidence.
At 1230 – was 4th wave resistance – that failed and quickly led to break down below 1200 and 1190. There’s support in this entire region 1190 down to 1160/1170 — but exactly where it bottoms is hard to say. The size of wave 3 down was 50 points from 1250 to 1200. So the size of 5, if also 50 points would be from 1230 down to 1280 — yet, we did go lower than 1280 — so possibility of extensions does exist. I suppose it depends on what happens between now and the election, but the structure is in place for a possible bottom as we have 5 waves into support region. I don’t expect this to go below 1150.
It is really uncommon to see such unclear patterns in the market across all major indices as well as in gold and silver, which appear to be stuck on a month long 4th wave after dropping in September. The sideways action everywhere was really not what I was expecting for October. I was expecting either big up or big down – but instead, we’ve had ridiculous amounts of intraday volatility, but looking at the month as a whole – we’ve gone nowhere.
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