With all this non-trending market action, I have to say I have no edge here. I have to recognize that some weeks are best with no trade – these last few weeks have been frustrating with the market not going anywhere. This presidential election and interest rate uncertainty is making this market stall. Historically, October has been very strong either to the downside or upside – yet there has been no net movement so far.
We’ve had two series of triangles — with this second triangle consolidating over the 2135 ES support – which has been tested numerous times.
Double triangle appears in all indices. Initially the Nasdaq kept trending up, but even now it’s not moving anymore.
Since there’s nothing I can comment on for the indices, we’ll switch over to the metals.
Gold may have bottomed near noon today just below 1250. There may be a bounce towards 1270 and then perhaps one more low below 1245.
Silver also tested the 17.2 support – this was the same region where the big rally happened just prior to that July 4 weekend last time. Geez, can’t believe market is here.
Well, the next support after 17.2 is 16.95 — so I believe there could be a bounce towards 18- and then we may sell back towards 17 for a final bottom. That’s from a support/resistance perspective – but now from a longer perspective, it makes me question where we are in the wave count because we dropped so low.
So while this initially appeared to be an impulsive wave to the upside – with a wave 4 correction, this has now gone beyond what is reasonable as a 4th wave.
Today we had a chance to go higher with the 8:30 report, which initially we did, but it reversed. Even though it bounce back, I see this as bearish. So I am no longer looking up. However, on the downside, I do not know if this will be one of those break support at 2135ES and then quickly reverse back up – or whether it will last several more days to the downside.
At this point, I think I have to wait it out.
This chart prediction clearly did not work out. I think a red flag was the fact that the c wave went so far down to 2135 — and the next day the market failed to break over 2156 — not enough juice to get over 2160.
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