c505218304b50c59c3659f6dda43bae7-links-0–>Today we sold off right into 2175 ES at the 4pm close — breaking the prior low on August 12. While this can be interpreted as a bearish sign, I also see a potential wave count that would allow for this — namely the one shown below.
It’s also worth noting that tomorrow is Fed Wednesday with 2pm minutes, which could cause some volatility.
I should also note that it’s possible that we already topped, but hard for me to see a clear pattern down unless 2170-2175 support gives way.
If this wave count is correct – then it would be an ending diagonal – of which we had wave 4 – which is broken down into a-b-c portion that happened today into the close at 2175.
Here’s the same chart without the red and blue lines.
Seeing potential for an ending diagonal in S&P as well as Russell – made clearer on the Russell chart below. The same blue lines can be drawn above.
Since tomorrow we have Fed minutes at 2pm on Wednesday, my best guess is we go up after the announcement – or if we rally into it, then we drop and then reverse back up into Wednesday overnight session – where by Thursday morning, we may turn down. That’s my best guess.
The blue count is barely holding – hard to tell at the moment. Silver did peep over 20 twice – though it did so in the pre-market session both yesterday and today. At the same time, it also held support in the 19.6/19.7 region – barely.
I’ve also noted the red note possibility – in which case if we break down below support, that would play out likely below 19.00.
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