Those calls are now worth over 4.3.
Since we bought 10 contracts, or $2,780 worth of options, that $2,780 was mostly (80%) exited at average price around 3.78 or $3,780 — for a realized profit of around $800 + an unrealized gain of another $400-$500.
So actually, earlier this week, we had our loss of about $1,000 — and with this trade, it more than made up for that loss -so we are actually slightly positive or the week. Though technically this trade counts for next week.
On the other hand, the silver drop is not what I wanted to see. It’s not technically part of the trade-of-the-week service since it’s just a long term buy recommendation. However, the large red candle drop at the 8:30am report does make me start to question whether structure holds.
It’s still a long term hold, but I know with leveraged positions, how much pain you can tolerate matters, so I’m taking another look at gold and silver here.
But first, here’s a look at S&P.
So the prediction of a 3rd wave up over 2170 – happened — we even went to the higher end of the chart and closed at around 2177.
Yes, we bought in the 2157 region – so that’s a roughly 20 point jump.
So whether we used options as we did in our trade-of-the-week or we used Futures via ES E-mini’s — either way would’ve been about $1,000 in profits.
If Silver did not complete its 4th wave — and only completed wave a of 4 — with this being the c-wave down, then that would open the door to 18.7-18.9 region for Silver to complete 4th wave before 5th wave begins.
On the other hand, if silver is in its 5th wave up — that big red candle from Friday is much bigger than I wanted to see. Critical regions to hold are the 19.58 region. Anything below 19.5 is immediately bearish.
This big red candle is the biggest red candle maybe in the past year–bigger than I had expected.
Shown in the smaller blue circle above – is the an extremely small bounce. I was expecting at least some kind of bounce during the day, but we got nothing. This is not a good sign. So I’m expecting a little bit more downside Sunday night and perhaps bottom early in the morning of Monday — maybe like 1am or 2am.
If this is going to be a corrective wave ii bottom, it must happen sometime Monday into Tuesday. Any longer than that, and the blue count will be higher probability.
At the moment, I’m seeing possibility of 19.58/19.61 to be tested before a bounce. From there, if we can’t get past 19.8, then there is risk for further downside.
In may prior silver chart, I labeled “2/a?” — between those two options, it appears the a-wave was playing out — and I should’ve seen it more clearly as the setup was there for a c-wave down into the 8:30am report. Additionally, since the i-ii-iii-iv-v setup was a leading diagonal — usually what happens when a leading diagonal completes is the pattern reverses most of the leg up.
I saw the overnight 20.08 as a possibility that it retraced all of it — but should have paid a bit more attention to the other possibility that if a c-wave were to develop, that it would indeed go below 19.8 — where the actual beginning of this leading diagonal began.
On the daily chart — we already got a complex a-b-c pattern in July – so i thought wave 4 completed — but perhaps from a larger time perspective, it’s possible for Silver to have only formed an a-wave of that larger 4th wave — which would complete below 19.
So the action on Monday will be very important in determining whether this is a wave 2 down or whether something more sinister is in the works.
Looking at gold, I did feel 1370 was a bit high and needed to correct — maybe to the 1350 region. However, I did not expect it to go all the way down to 1340 — and have virtually no bounce during the day. That part I did not expect.
If 1338 holds and we bounce to 1345 and then turn back down, we could test 1335 – before resuming the trend up.
If that does not hold up, we may test the 1305.
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