The market has pretty much not moved for the entire past week. If you look at silver — it basically stayed within a 2 cent range for most of the day.
The markets are awaiting the Fed announcement tomorrow Wednesday at 2pm. And that will likely cause big movements in all major markets. The tough part is figuring out which direction. While my inclination is up — I could be wrong.
But so far, with Apple’s earnings beat (even when analysts downgraded the stock today, I believe) — in the after hours — the market is set to rip going into the Fed announcement.
We’ll see whether the Fed reverses that sentiment and provides rocket fuel for this to go to the moon.
AAPL sold off from 100 down towards 96 today — and then after earnings — it broke the recent highs above 100 towards 102. This should set a positive tone for tomorrow’s session.
Since anything can happen on Fed days, we cashed out our Russell trade for $1,400.
Recall that last week, we had a $700 realized TF trade and another $1,000 unrealized TF trade. Well, that $1,000 unrealized is now $1,400 realized as we exited at 1213 from 1199 entry.
OPENING: Bought Russell Futures (TF) @ 1199 last Thursay
CLOSING: Sold Russell Futures (TF) @ 1213 today Tuesday
Profit = $1,400
Profit per point = $100
# Days Held = Thursday to Tuesday = 4 trading days
Really I should have some fancy graphics for these opening and closing trades with related stats such as # of days held, max loss, max profit, etc. I hope to get to them one day. Just too busy trading and other stuff to brag about trades, but yea, I’ll have to get to that one day. I think the stuff here is too advanced for most people to understand, so need to make things more easily digest-able for you guys..hopefully soon.
As you may know, I’ve been completely and transparently documenting my views on the market as well as my trades for the past 7 months — both good and bad.
While the past few weeks have been particularly good, I can’t guarantee I’ll always perform well. Nonetheless, I plan to form some kind of fund that provides above average returns to everyday people — not just rich, accredited investors. Legally, I can’t do that with a hedge fund — since only accredited investors with >$1M investment can participate in that. There’s another legal structure that I am looking into that will let regular people participate- – there are tradeoffs of course.
For now, I am in the process of registering as an investment advisor (RIA) with the state. This means I have to take the Series 65 exam and fill out lots of paperwork. Not sure how long it will take, but will keep you posted on any developments.
This is an hourly chart from a few days ago — but since the market is basically in the same place — nothing really happened — so it’s still the same perspective I had.
My guess is the Fed will trigger a massive rally to the upside — and perhaps the next day or a few days after it would pull back. I could be wrong, but that’s my best guess.
When it comes to Fed days, anything can happen, so I wouldn’t bet big in either direction. If the above doesn’t happen, then I will have to redraw the charts.
The chart below shows some of our entries. Today we exited at 1213.
With silver — if silver drops below 19 after the Fed, I would expect it to quickly reverse back up.
Gold has been particularly weak, much more so than I had expected. Gold has stayed in the very low 1300s for much longer than I expected.
The tough part is figuring out whether C-wavve completed or if there’s more to go. Technically, I believe the low at 19.27 was ever so slightly lower than the low of wave a. So it’s possible wave iv is over.
Usually with these Fed announcements or 8:30 reports, it’s not unusual for them to be 5th waves down to force capitulation, and then it reverses. If this is the case, then Silver could dip below 19.00.
Gold looks much weaker than silver. Silver is better positioned for upside than gold is. However, the miners GDX/NUGT performed quite well today. And if their performance can drag up gold, then maybe gold will follow in the next few days?
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