c505218304b50c59c3659f6dda43bae7-others-0–>Did we call that downside and rally or what…!
Yesterday, we posted: Tuesday, 2/23/16 S&P500 Daily Analysis: Downside Possible Before Upside – Now I did not expect the upside to be so massive and fast, but we definitely got the downside below 1890 followed by a rally.
Overnight, we got an Elliott C-wave down:
Yesterday we had the a-b-1-2 setup — and then we completed the 3 overnight, the 4 and 5 this morning — and then we got the reversal rally from 1886.75 all the way to 1932.
These numbers are from the S&P500 Index, which are a few points off from the ES Futures I normally post. But they allow me to fit more of the pattern on one screen so it’s easier to label. Here’s basically what happened today and the past few days — a rally over 1940, then a drop below 1890, then a rally over 1930.
Elliott Wave C-Wave
Notice the yellow “B?” was between 1880 and 1990 — we ended up going to a low of 1886.75 ES at 10:30am EST before the rally began.
The above 5 min chart showed what I was seeing as a potential downside count.
It’s possible that the b-wave high over 1940 and the c wave low this morning at 1886.75 formed an expanding a-b-c B wave flat.
If we say A=C, then A was that 130 point rally from 1800 to 1930, so then a 130 point rally from 1886 would be over 2000 –which is a little freaky. –higher than my target range of 1950-1980.
So what if we took 61.8% –a little less than 2/3 of the 130 point rally — and got something like 75 or 80 points. If we add that 75 or 80 points to 1885, then we get 1965 — which is above 1950.
As you know, I’ve been expecting 1950 since the rally from the lows, and it appears the math works out right for at least 1950 — ideally higher. I won’t know with more precision until we get there.
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