Tuesday, 2/16/16: S&P500 Daily Technical Analysis: Retrace to 1870 and Back to Highs

In my last few blog posts including yesterday’s post: Monday, 2/15/16 President’s Day Weekend S&P 500 Analysis – Nonstop Rally After Truncated 5th wave, I  noted that my concern was that this rally would go on and on without any significant retrace from last Thursday’s close at 1825.

We went all the way to 1892ES and only retraced down to the 1870 region. Yesterday, I suggested potential retrace to 1874, 1865, or 1850.

Of those three, the market retraced to the 1870 level and spent some time in the 1874 region.

Yesterday’s Chart (Monday, Feb 15)

Today’s S&P 500 Technical Analysis Chart (Tuesday, Feb 16)

Overnight, we hit the high A wave of 1892/1893.

The correction was a 3 wave intermediary B wave correction – and then the rally continued from 1870 in the S&P500.

Now, it may take multiple attempts at the overnight high of 1892 before we can break it — but I suspect we could potentially break past it overnight. Let’s see what happens.

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S&P Outlook

As noted in earlier posts, I think we could be heading above 1940/1950. It’s a bit  crazy how just last Thursday I was eyeing the break of 1800 and potentially going to 1750. But OPEC rumors came about and put a truncated 5th wave in the market with a massive rallly – I had to change course – especially with the follow through rally on Thursday night and Friday -that led to a gap up on Sunday night and Monday. We only got a tiny retrace this morning — at this pace the 1940/1950 target is not out of the question. However, I don’t think we will go directly straight up there. But in the immediate term, I am expecting a break of 1900, ideally tomorrow.

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