As much as I want this market to be below 1800 to make the pattern look better, I have to accept the fact that this 5th wave leg is completed at 1802.5 — surpassing the prior low at 1804 just by a little bit before rallying quickly in a wave 4 — and then coming back down ever so briefly in the 1805 region as a truncated 5th wave — before the OPEC numbers came back and put a bottom in the market.
At this point, I don’t expect us to go below 1800 in the immediate term as we crossed above the red line — even though it was on low volume on a Friday before a 3 day weekend – it really should never have gone that high if there were going to be big drop into the 1700s in the immediate term.
So for now, I have to look up, ideally with a slight retrace on Monday. My concern is that we won’t get a retrace at all.
If this rally is for real, we should be going up over 1940.
Yesterday we said that we will likely see a wave 3 down overnight — that’s what we got — or something similar to it.
Based on Friday’s action, this Wednesday chart is wrong because wave A — even though it looks like a wave A — it could potentially could as a wave 1 — because we ended up getting a truncated 5th wave into the 1805 region.
The drop happened overnight Wednesday night into Thursday and basically we went up from there. During the day, we did test the 1805-1810 region twice –but then some OPEC numbers came out supposedly that rocketed the market back up.
We closed out our trade on Friday close to max profit. But we did enter another trade on Friday for next week that we had to exit early due to the continued unexpected rally on low volume on Friday and may reassess based on Monday’s futures action.